tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Portland → Nashville via Baltimore: arrives on time 26%

  1. 17:20 PWM → 19:05 BWI
    WN 3414 · Southwest · 1h 45m · 76% on time, 5.3% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Baltimore (BWI) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:55 BWI → 20:50 BNA
    WN 687 · Southwest · 1h 55m · 50% on time, 15.4% cancelled

Total trip 4h 30m, scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 1 h behind Portland). Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection65%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 35% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time26%First flight not cancelled (5.3% are) × connection made (65%) × second flight not cancelled (15.4% are) and within 15 minutes (50%).
Total trip4h 30mPWM 17:20 to BNA 20:50, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.