tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Raleigh/Durham → Phoenix via Nashville: arrives on time 25%

  1. 21:15 RDU → 21:45 BNA
    WN 3421 · Southwest · 1h 30m · 61% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Nashville (BNA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:35 BNA → 00:15 PHX +1 day
    WN 643 · Southwest · 3h 35m · 46% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 55m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Raleigh/Durham). Times are local. Both flew on 28 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection55%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 45% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time25%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (55%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (46%).
Total trip5h 55mRDU 21:15 to PHX 00:15, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.