tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Raleigh/Durham → Minneapolis via Nashville: arrives on time 45%

  1. 21:15 RDU → 21:45 BNA
    WN 3421 · Southwest · 1h 30m · 61% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in Nashville (BNA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:45 BNA → 00:52 MSP +1 day
    WN 968 · Southwest · 2h 08m · 76% on time, 3.8% cancelled

Total trip 4h 38m, scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h behind Raleigh/Durham). Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection61%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 39% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time45%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (61%) × second flight not cancelled (3.8% are) and within 15 minutes (76%).
Total trip4h 38mRDU 21:15 to MSP 00:52, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.