tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Reno → Dallas via Chicago: arrives on time 36%

  1. 09:45 RNO → 15:30 MDW
    WN 3449 · Southwest · 3h 45m · 88% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Chicago (MDW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 16:20 MDW → 18:35 DAL
    WN 2758 · Southwest · 2h 15m · 52% on time, 4.8% cancelled

Total trip 6h 50m, scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas is 2 h ahead of Reno). Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection71%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 29% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time36%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (71%) × second flight not cancelled (4.8% are) and within 15 minutes (52%).
Total trip6h 50mRNO 09:45 to DAL 18:35, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.