tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Raleigh/Durham → Las Vegas via St Louis: arrives on time 15%

  1. 19:50 RDU → 20:55 STL
    WN 3457 · Southwest · 2h 05m · 33% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in St Louis (STL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:50 STL → 23:18 LAS
    WN 3936 · Southwest · 3h 28m · 60% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 28m, scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 3 h behind Raleigh/Durham). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection25%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 75% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time15%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (25%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (60%).
Total trip6h 28mRDU 19:50 to LAS 23:18, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.