tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Raleigh/Durham → Chicago via St Louis: arrives on time 13%

  1. 19:50 RDU → 20:55 STL
    WN 3457 · Southwest · 2h 05m · 33% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in St Louis (STL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:45 STL → 22:55 MDW
    WN 3957 · Southwest · 1h 05m · 67% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 00m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Raleigh/Durham). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection19%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 81% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time13%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (19%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (67%).
Total trip4h 00mRDU 19:50 to MDW 22:55, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.