tailodds FORECAST
Connection · two tickets · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Washington via Kansas City: arrives on time 85%

  1. 20:32 PHX → 01:35 MCI
    WN 3459 · Southwest · 2h 38m · 40% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 3h 58m layover in Kansas City (MCI) · 90 min minimum on separate tickets
  3. 05:33 MCI → 09:19 DCA +1 day
    AA 5616 · American, flown by PSA · 2h 46m · 94% on time, 7.3% cancelled

Total trip 9h 47m, scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 26 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection98%The first flight arrived more than 148 minutes late on 2% of the days it flew: too late for the 90-minute minimum connection on a 3h 58m layover.
Arrives on time85%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (98%) × second flight not cancelled (7.3% are) and within 15 minutes (94%).
Total trip9h 47mPHX 20:32 to DCA 09:19, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.