tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Sacramento → Austin via San Diego: arrives on time 6%

  1. 17:30 SMF → 19:00 SAN
    WN 3509 · Southwest · 1h 30m · 33% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in San Diego (SAN) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:50 SAN → 01:10 AUS +1 day
    WN 3477 · Southwest · 2h 55m · 28% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 15m, scheduled departure to arrival (Austin is 2 h ahead of Sacramento). Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection21%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 79% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time6%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (21%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (28%).
Total trip5h 15mSMF 17:30 to AUS 01:10, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.