tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Washington → Los Angeles via Kansas City: arrives on time 10%

  1. 20:15 DCA → 22:05 MCI
    WN 3514 · Southwest · 2h 52m · 43% on time, 14.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Kansas City (MCI) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:55 MCI → 00:20 LAX +1 day
    WN 2561 · Southwest · 3h 25m · 45% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 05m, scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 3 h behind Washington). Times are local. Both flew on 20 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection26%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 74% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time10%First flight not cancelled (14.0% are) × connection made (26%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (45%).
Total trip7h 05mDCA 20:15 to LAX 00:20, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.