tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Milwaukee → San Diego via Las Vegas: arrives on time 14%

  1. 19:30 MKE → 21:20 LAS
    WN 354 · Southwest · 3h 50m · 58% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Las Vegas (LAS) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:15 LAS → 23:28 SAN
    WN 2871 · Southwest · 1h 12m · 29% on time, 7.7% cancelled

Total trip 5h 57m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 2 h behind Milwaukee). Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection54%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 46% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time14%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (54%) × second flight not cancelled (7.7% are) and within 15 minutes (29%).
Total trip5h 57mMKE 19:30 to SAN 23:28, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.