tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Diego → Chicago via Sacramento: arrives on time 37%

  1. 21:00 SAN → 22:45 SMF
    WN 3551 · Southwest · 1h 40m · 34% on time, 1.8% cancelled
  2. 1h 05m layover in Sacramento (SMF) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 23:50 SMF → 05:45 MDW +1 day
    WN 3802 · Southwest · 3h 55m · 91% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 45m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of San Diego). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection41%The first flight arrived more than 20 minutes late on 59% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 05m layover.
Arrives on time37%First flight not cancelled (1.8% are) × connection made (41%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (91%).
Total trip6h 45mSAN 21:00 to MDW 05:45, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.