tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Kansas City → Phoenix via Denver: arrives on time 22%

  1. 19:10 MCI → 20:05 DEN
    WN 3570 · Southwest · 1h 55m · 65% on time, 2.0% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Denver (DEN) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:00 DEN → 22:00 PHX
    WN 1684 · Southwest · 1h 55m · 40% on time, 3.5% cancelled

Total trip 4h 45m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 2 h behind Kansas City). Times are local. Both flew on 47 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection58%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 42% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time22%First flight not cancelled (2.0% are) × connection made (58%) × second flight not cancelled (3.5% are) and within 15 minutes (40%).
Total trip4h 45mMCI 19:10 to PHX 22:00, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.