tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Antonio → El Paso via Phoenix: arrives on time 6%

  1. 17:35 SAT → 17:55 PHX
    WN 3585 · Southwest · 2h 20m · 46% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:45 PHX → 21:00 ELP
    WN 4551 · Southwest · 1h 15m · 23% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 25m, scheduled departure to arrival (El Paso is 1 h behind San Antonio). Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection27%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 73% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time6%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (27%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (23%).
Total trip4h 25mSAT 17:35 to ELP 21:00, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.