tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

St Louis → Sacramento via Dallas: arrives on time 9%

  1. 18:42 STL → 20:22 DAL
    WN 3597 · Southwest · 1h 40m · 53% on time, 2.0% cancelled
  2. 48m layover in Dallas (DAL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:10 DAL → 22:40 SMF
    WN 4365 · Southwest · 3h 32m · 27% on time, 2.9% cancelled

Total trip 6h 00m, scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 2 h behind St Louis). Times are local. Both flew on 32 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection35%The first flight arrived more than 3 minutes late on 65% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 48m layover.
Arrives on time9%First flight not cancelled (2.0% are) × connection made (35%) × second flight not cancelled (2.9% are) and within 15 minutes (27%).
Total trip6h 00mSTL 18:42 to SMF 22:40, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.