tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Austin → Atlanta via Chicago: arrives on time 2%

  1. 15:30 AUS → 18:00 MDW
    WN 360 · Southwest · 2h 30m · 18% on time, 3.4% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Chicago (MDW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:50 MDW → 21:45 ATL
    WN 4140 · Southwest · 1h 55m · 36% on time, 2.9% cancelled

Total trip 5h 15m, scheduled departure to arrival (Atlanta is 1 h ahead of Austin). Times are local. Both flew on 32 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection7%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 93% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time2%First flight not cancelled (3.4% are) × connection made (7%) × second flight not cancelled (2.9% are) and within 15 minutes (36%).
Total trip5h 15mAUS 15:30 to ATL 21:45, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.