tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Austin → Detroit via Chicago: arrives on time 3%

  1. 15:30 AUS → 18:00 MDW
    WN 360 · Southwest · 2h 30m · 18% on time, 3.4% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Chicago (MDW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:50 MDW → 21:00 DTW
    WN 4200 · Southwest · 1h 12m · 54% on time, 7.1% cancelled

Total trip 4h 32m, scheduled departure to arrival (Detroit is 1 h ahead of Austin). Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection7%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 93% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time3%First flight not cancelled (3.4% are) × connection made (7%) × second flight not cancelled (7.1% are) and within 15 minutes (54%).
Total trip4h 32mAUS 15:30 to DTW 21:00, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.