tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Austin → Philadelphia via Chicago: arrives on time 5%

  1. 15:30 AUS → 18:00 MDW
    WN 360 · Southwest · 2h 30m · 18% on time, 3.4% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Chicago (MDW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:55 MDW → 21:50 PHL
    WN 4263 · Southwest · 2h 00m · 51% on time, 4.9% cancelled

Total trip 5h 25m, scheduled departure to arrival (Philadelphia is 1 h ahead of Austin). Times are local. Both flew on 39 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection11%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 89% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time5%First flight not cancelled (3.4% are) × connection made (11%) × second flight not cancelled (4.9% are) and within 15 minutes (51%).
Total trip5h 25mAUS 15:30 to PHL 21:50, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.