tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Santa Barbara → Seattle via Sacramento: arrives on time 70%

  1. 19:50 SBA → 21:05 SMF
    WN 3603 · Southwest · 1h 15m · 86% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Sacramento (SMF) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:55 SMF → 23:50 SEA
    WN 4985 · Southwest · 1h 55m · 94% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 00m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection74%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 26% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time70%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (74%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (94%).
Total trip4h 00mSBA 19:50 to SEA 23:50, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.