tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Louisville → New York via Houston: arrives on time 17%

  1. 15:00 SDF → 16:20 HOU
    WN 3606 · Southwest · 2h 20m · 58% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 05m layover in Houston (HOU) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:25 HOU → 21:55 LGA
    WN 2190 · Southwest · 3h 30m · 28% on time, 3.5% cancelled

Total trip 6h 55m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 31 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection64%The first flight arrived more than 20 minutes late on 36% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 05m layover.
Arrives on time17%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (64%) × second flight not cancelled (3.5% are) and within 15 minutes (28%).
Total trip6h 55mSDF 15:00 to LGA 21:55, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.