tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Louisville → Las Vegas via Chicago: arrives on time 42%

  1. 15:35 SDF → 15:50 MDW
    WN 3610 · Southwest · 1h 15m · 75% on time, 4.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 05m layover in Chicago (MDW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 16:55 MDW → 18:45 LAS
    WN 2797 · Southwest · 3h 50m · 54% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 10m, scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 3 h behind Louisville). Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection81%The first flight arrived more than 20 minutes late on 19% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 05m layover.
Arrives on time42%First flight not cancelled (4.0% are) × connection made (81%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (54%).
Total trip6h 10mSDF 15:35 to LAS 18:45, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.