tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Louisville → Minneapolis via Chicago: arrives on time 51%

  1. 15:35 SDF → 15:50 MDW
    WN 3610 · Southwest · 1h 15m · 75% on time, 4.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 15m layover in Chicago (MDW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:05 MDW → 18:35 MSP
    WN 4643 · Southwest · 1h 30m · 65% on time, 4.8% cancelled

Total trip 4h 00m, scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h behind Louisville). Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection85%The first flight arrived more than 30 minutes late on 15% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 15m layover.
Arrives on time51%First flight not cancelled (4.0% are) × connection made (85%) × second flight not cancelled (4.8% are) and within 15 minutes (65%).
Total trip4h 00mSDF 15:35 to MSP 18:35, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.