tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Seattle → Chicago via Baltimore: arrives on time 34%

  1. 21:25 SEA → 05:20 BWI
    WN 3613 · Southwest · 4h 55m · 50% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Baltimore (BWI) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 06:10 BWI → 07:10 MDW +1 day
    WN 995 · Southwest · 2h 00m · 89% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 45m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of Seattle). Times are local. Both flew on 38 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection38%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 62% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time34%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (38%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (89%).
Total trip7h 45mSEA 21:25 to MDW 07:10, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.