tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Sacramento → Nashville via Baltimore: arrives on time 61%

  1. 21:40 SMF → 05:35 BWI
    WN 3622 · Southwest · 4h 55m · 83% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Baltimore (BWI) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 06:25 BWI → 07:20 BNA +1 day
    WN 874 · Southwest · 1h 55m · 90% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 40m, scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 2 h ahead of Sacramento). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection67%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 33% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time61%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (67%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (90%).
Total trip7h 40mSMF 21:40 to BNA 07:20, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.