tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Francisco → New York via Nashville: arrives on time 47%

  1. 22:50 SFO → 05:10 BNA
    WN 3634 · Southwest · 4h 20m · 40% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 20m layover in Nashville (BNA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 06:30 BNA → 09:45 LGA +1 day
    WN 2735 · Southwest · 2h 15m · 80% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 55m, scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of San Francisco). Times are local. Both flew on 54 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection59%The first flight arrived more than 35 minutes late on 41% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 20m layover.
Arrives on time47%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (59%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (80%).
Total trip7h 55mSFO 22:50 to LGA 09:45, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.