tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Francisco → Santa Barbara via Las Vegas: arrives on time 13%

  1. 13:20 SFO → 15:00 LAS
    WN 3644 · Southwest · 1h 40m · 17% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in Las Vegas (LAS) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 16:00 LAS → 17:25 SBA
    WN 2002 · Southwest · 1h 25m · 78% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 05m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection17%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 83% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time13%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (17%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (78%).
Total trip4h 05mSFO 13:20 to SBA 17:25, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.