tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Francisco → Chicago via Las Vegas: arrives on time 10%

  1. 13:20 SFO → 15:00 LAS
    WN 3644 · Southwest · 1h 40m · 17% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 05m layover in Las Vegas (LAS) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 16:05 LAS → 21:45 MDW
    WN 2274 · Southwest · 3h 38m · 50% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 23m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of San Francisco). Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection20%The first flight arrived more than 20 minutes late on 80% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 05m layover.
Arrives on time10%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (20%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (50%).
Total trip6h 23mSFO 13:20 to MDW 21:45, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.