tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Francisco → Houston via Las Vegas: arrives on time 2%

  1. 13:20 SFO → 15:00 LAS
    WN 3644 · Southwest · 1h 40m · 17% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 48m layover in Las Vegas (LAS) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:48 LAS → 20:55 HOU
    WN 4498 · Southwest · 3h 05m · 46% on time, 4.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 33m, scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 2 h ahead of San Francisco). Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection5%The first flight arrived more than 3 minutes late on 95% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 48m layover.
Arrives on time2%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (5%) × second flight not cancelled (4.0% are) and within 15 minutes (46%).
Total trip5h 33mSFO 13:20 to HOU 20:55, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.