tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Francisco → Los Angeles via Las Vegas: arrives on time 5%

  1. 13:20 SFO → 15:00 LAS
    WN 3644 · Southwest · 1h 40m · 17% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Las Vegas (LAS) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:50 LAS → 17:10 LAX
    WN 4500 · Southwest · 1h 20m · 62% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 3h 50m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection7%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 93% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time5%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (7%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (62%).
Total trip3h 50mSFO 13:20 to LAX 17:10, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.