tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Francisco → Chicago via Los Angeles: arrives on time 32%

  1. 21:05 SFO → 22:40 LAX
    WN 3648 · Southwest · 1h 35m · 21% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 15m layover in Los Angeles (LAX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 23:55 LAX → 05:55 MDW +1 day
    WN 2413 · Southwest · 4h 00m · 86% on time, 1.7% cancelled

Total trip 6h 50m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of San Francisco). Times are local. Both flew on 32 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection38%The first flight arrived more than 30 minutes late on 62% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 15m layover.
Arrives on time32%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (38%) × second flight not cancelled (1.7% are) and within 15 minutes (86%).
Total trip6h 50mSFO 21:05 to MDW 05:55, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.