tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Dallas → Reno via Phoenix: arrives on time 37%

  1. 20:35 DAL → 21:05 PHX
    WN 3674 · Southwest · 2h 25m · 32% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 40m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:45 PHX → 00:32 RNO +1 day
    WN 656 · Southwest · 1h 48m · 56% on time, 3.8% cancelled

Total trip 5h 58m, scheduled departure to arrival (Reno is 2 h behind Dallas). Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection68%The first flight arrived more than 55 minutes late on 32% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 40m layover.
Arrives on time37%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (68%) × second flight not cancelled (3.8% are) and within 15 minutes (56%).
Total trip5h 58mDAL 20:35 to RNO 00:32, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.