tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Houston → Baltimore via Tampa: arrives on time 10%

  1. 14:40 HOU → 17:55 TPA
    WN 3709 · Southwest · 2h 15m · 34% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Tampa (TPA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:45 TPA → 21:15 BWI
    WN 928 · Southwest · 2h 30m · 41% on time, 2.9% cancelled

Total trip 5h 35m, scheduled departure to arrival (Baltimore is 1 h ahead of Houston). Times are local. Both flew on 32 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection24%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 76% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time10%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (24%) × second flight not cancelled (2.9% are) and within 15 minutes (41%).
Total trip5h 35mHOU 14:40 to BWI 21:15, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.