tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Salt Lake City → Philadelphia via Chicago: arrives on time 20%

  1. 14:05 SLC → 18:05 MDW
    WN 3750 · Southwest · 3h 00m · 57% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Chicago (MDW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:55 MDW → 21:50 PHL
    WN 4263 · Southwest · 2h 00m · 51% on time, 4.9% cancelled

Total trip 5h 50m, scheduled departure to arrival (Philadelphia is 2 h ahead of Salt Lake City). Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection40%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 60% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time20%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (40%) × second flight not cancelled (4.9% are) and within 15 minutes (51%).
Total trip5h 50mSLC 14:05 to PHL 21:50, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.