tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Austin → Santa Ana via Phoenix: arrives on time 25%

  1. 15:25 AUS → 15:50 PHX
    WN 376 · Southwest · 2h 25m · 63% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 16:45 PHX → 18:00 SNA
    WN 4510 · Southwest · 1h 15m · 43% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 35m, scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 2 h behind Austin). Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection59%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 41% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time25%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (59%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (43%).
Total trip4h 35mAUS 15:25 to SNA 18:00, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.