tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Raleigh/Durham → San Francisco via Chicago: arrives on time 30%

  1. 19:28 RDU → 20:28 MDW
    WN 3766 · Southwest · 2h 00m · 57% on time, 2.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 02m layover in Chicago (MDW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:30 MDW → 00:12 SFO +1 day
    WN 2893 · Southwest · 4h 42m · 51% on time, 2.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 44m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h behind Raleigh/Durham). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection62%The first flight arrived more than 17 minutes late on 38% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 02m layover.
Arrives on time30%First flight not cancelled (2.0% are) × connection made (62%) × second flight not cancelled (2.0% are) and within 15 minutes (51%).
Total trip7h 44mRDU 19:28 to SFO 00:12, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.