tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Raleigh/Durham → Indianapolis via Chicago: arrives on time 25%

  1. 19:28 RDU → 20:28 MDW
    WN 3766 · Southwest · 2h 00m · 57% on time, 2.0% cancelled
  2. 57m layover in Chicago (MDW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:25 MDW → 23:25 IND
    WN 3190 · Southwest · 1h 05m · 55% on time, 2.9% cancelled

Total trip 4h 02m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection49%The first flight arrived more than 12 minutes late on 51% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 57m layover.
Arrives on time25%First flight not cancelled (2.0% are) × connection made (49%) × second flight not cancelled (2.9% are) and within 15 minutes (55%).
Total trip4h 02mRDU 19:28 to IND 23:25, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.