Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026
Raleigh/Durham → Houston via Chicago: arrives on time 30%
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19:28 RDU → 20:28 MDWWN 3766 · Southwest · 2h 00m · 57% on time, 2.0% cancelled
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1h 12m layover in Chicago (MDW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
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21:40 MDW → 00:12 HOU +1 dayWN 954 · Southwest · 2h 32m · 42% on time, 2.9% cancelled
Total trip 5h 44m, scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Raleigh/Durham). Times are local. Both flew on 32 of the last 56 days.
Makes the connection73%The first flight arrived more than 27 minutes late on 27% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 12m layover.
Arrives on time30%First flight not cancelled (2.0% are) × connection made (73%) × second flight not cancelled (2.9% are) and within 15 minutes (42%).
Total trip5h 44mRDU 19:28 to HOU 00:12, layover included
Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.
Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.