tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Sacramento → Orlando via Chicago: arrives on time 45%

  1. 12:00 SMF → 17:55 MDW
    WN 3769 · Southwest · 3h 55m · 72% on time, 2.4% cancelled
  2. 2h 40m layover in Chicago (MDW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:35 MDW → 00:35 MCO +1 day
    WN 2821 · Southwest · 2h 35m · 47% on time, 3.5% cancelled

Total trip 9h 10m, scheduled departure to arrival (Orlando is 3 h ahead of Sacramento). Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection100%The first flight arrived more than 115 minutes late on 0% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 40m layover.
Arrives on time45%First flight not cancelled (2.4% are) × connection made (100%) × second flight not cancelled (3.5% are) and within 15 minutes (47%).
Total trip9h 10mSMF 12:00 to MCO 00:35, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.