tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Sacramento → Charlotte via Chicago: arrives on time 29%

  1. 12:00 SMF → 17:55 MDW
    WN 3769 · Southwest · 3h 55m · 72% on time, 2.4% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Chicago (MDW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:50 MDW → 21:48 CLT
    WN 4194 · Southwest · 1h 58m · 44% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 48m, scheduled departure to arrival (Charlotte is 3 h ahead of Sacramento). Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection67%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 33% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time29%First flight not cancelled (2.4% are) × connection made (67%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (44%).
Total trip6h 48mSMF 12:00 to CLT 21:48, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.