tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Baltimore → Chicago via Orlando: arrives on time 19%

  1. 18:40 BWI → 21:10 MCO
    WN 3777 · Southwest · 2h 30m · 55% on time, 6.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Orlando (MCO) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:00 MCO → 22:00 MDW
    WN 4762 · Southwest · 2h 50m · 50% on time, 3.5% cancelled

Total trip 6h 10m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Baltimore). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection43%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 57% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time19%First flight not cancelled (6.0% are) × connection made (43%) × second flight not cancelled (3.5% are) and within 15 minutes (50%).
Total trip6h 10mBWI 18:40 to MDW 22:00, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.