tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Baltimore → Birmingham via Orlando: arrives on time 24%

  1. 18:40 BWI → 21:10 MCO
    WN 3777 · Southwest · 2h 30m · 55% on time, 6.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in Orlando (MCO) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:10 MCO → 22:45 BHM
    WN 4829 · Southwest · 1h 40m · 49% on time, 4.1% cancelled

Total trip 5h 10m, scheduled departure to arrival (Birmingham is 1 h behind Baltimore). Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection55%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 45% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time24%First flight not cancelled (6.0% are) × connection made (55%) × second flight not cancelled (4.1% are) and within 15 minutes (49%).
Total trip5h 10mBWI 18:40 to BHM 22:45, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.