tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Sacramento → Santa Ana via Las Vegas: arrives on time 56%

  1. 18:50 SMF → 20:20 LAS
    WN 3786 · Southwest · 1h 30m · 75% on time, 4.0% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Las Vegas (LAS) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:15 LAS → 22:20 SNA
    WN 1590 · Southwest · 1h 10m · 82% on time, 2.2% cancelled

Total trip 3h 35m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 44 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection73%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 27% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time56%First flight not cancelled (4.0% are) × connection made (73%) × second flight not cancelled (2.2% are) and within 15 minutes (82%).
Total trip3h 35mSMF 18:50 to SNA 22:20, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.