tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Sacramento → Nashville via Las Vegas: arrives on time 55%

  1. 20:45 SMF → 22:15 LAS
    WN 3788 · Southwest · 1h 30m · 65% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 10m layover in Las Vegas (LAS) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 23:25 LAS → 05:00 BNA +1 day
    WN 2191 · Southwest · 3h 35m · 82% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 15m, scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 2 h ahead of Sacramento). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection67%The first flight arrived more than 25 minutes late on 33% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 10m layover.
Arrives on time55%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (67%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (82%).
Total trip6h 15mSMF 20:45 to BNA 05:00, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.