tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Sacramento → Baltimore via Kansas City: arrives on time 40%

  1. 11:50 SMF → 17:00 MCI
    WN 3798 · Southwest · 3h 10m · 71% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 05m layover in Kansas City (MCI) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:05 MCI → 21:35 BWI
    WN 1399 · Southwest · 2h 30m · 56% on time, 5.9% cancelled

Total trip 6h 45m, scheduled departure to arrival (Baltimore is 3 h ahead of Sacramento). Times are local. Both flew on 32 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection76%The first flight arrived more than 20 minutes late on 24% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 05m layover.
Arrives on time40%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (76%) × second flight not cancelled (5.9% are) and within 15 minutes (56%).
Total trip6h 45mSMF 11:50 to BWI 21:35, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.