tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Sacramento → Baltimore via Orlando: arrives on time 58%

  1. 22:10 SMF → 06:15 MCO
    WN 3799 · Southwest · 5h 05m · 72% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Orlando (MCO) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 07:10 MCO → 09:30 BWI +1 day
    WN 1956 · Southwest · 2h 15m · 93% on time, 1.7% cancelled

Total trip 8h 15m, scheduled departure to arrival (Baltimore is 3 h ahead of Sacramento). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection64%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 36% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time58%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (64%) × second flight not cancelled (1.7% are) and within 15 minutes (93%).
Total trip8h 15mSMF 22:10 to BWI 09:30, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.