tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Sacramento → Houston via Chicago: arrives on time 77%

  1. 23:50 SMF → 05:45 MDW
    WN 3802 · Southwest · 3h 55m · 91% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Chicago (MDW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 06:40 MDW → 09:15 HOU +1 day
    WN 4497 · Southwest · 2h 35m · 88% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 25m, scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 2 h ahead of Sacramento). Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection88%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 12% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time77%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (88%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (88%).
Total trip7h 25mSMF 23:50 to HOU 09:15, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.