tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Las Vegas → Phoenix via San Jose: arrives on time 20%

  1. 19:15 LAS → 20:45 SJC
    WN 3865 · Southwest · 1h 30m · 44% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in San Jose (SJC) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:45 SJC → 23:35 PHX
    WN 3697 · Southwest · 1h 52m · 46% on time, 2.4% cancelled

Total trip 4h 22m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection44%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 56% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time20%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (44%) × second flight not cancelled (2.4% are) and within 15 minutes (46%).
Total trip4h 22mLAS 19:15 to PHX 23:35, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.