tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Las Vegas → Seattle via San Jose: arrives on time 13%

  1. 19:15 LAS → 20:45 SJC
    WN 3865 · Southwest · 1h 30m · 44% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in San Jose (SJC) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:35 SJC → 21:30 SEA
    WN 3705 · Southwest · 2h 10m · 64% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 30m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection20%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 80% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time13%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (20%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (64%).
Total trip4h 30mLAS 19:15 to SEA 21:30, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.