tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Santa Ana → Phoenix via Sacramento: arrives on time 36%

  1. 14:05 SNA → 15:40 SMF
    WN 3870 · Southwest · 1h 30m · 84% on time, 1.8% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in Sacramento (SMF) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 16:40 SMF → 18:35 PHX
    WN 3231 · Southwest · 1h 55m · 44% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 30m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 39 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection84%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 16% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time36%First flight not cancelled (1.8% are) × connection made (84%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (44%).
Total trip4h 30mSNA 14:05 to PHX 18:35, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.