tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Sarasota/Bradenton → Baltimore via Chicago: arrives on time 32%

  1. 17:45 SRQ → 19:25 MDW
    WN 3879 · Southwest · 2h 40m · 52% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 25m layover in Chicago (MDW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:50 MDW → 23:45 BWI
    WN 2746 · Southwest · 1h 55m · 49% on time, 7.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 00m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection70%The first flight arrived more than 40 minutes late on 30% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 25m layover.
Arrives on time32%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (70%) × second flight not cancelled (7.0% are) and within 15 minutes (49%).
Total trip6h 00mSRQ 17:45 to BWI 23:45, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.