tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

St Louis → Baltimore via Atlanta: arrives on time 18%

  1. 16:25 STL → 19:00 ATL
    WN 3882 · Southwest · 1h 35m · 45% on time, 2.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Atlanta (ATL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:50 ATL → 21:45 BWI
    WN 189 · Southwest · 1h 55m · 59% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 20m, scheduled departure to arrival (Baltimore is 1 h ahead of St Louis). Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection32%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 68% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time18%First flight not cancelled (2.0% are) × connection made (32%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (59%).
Total trip4h 20mSTL 16:25 to BWI 21:45, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.